LED industry opens "big market reversal" capital market attention continues to heat up

With the correction of the price of LED products in the middle and upper reaches of the first half of the year, the performance of LED listed companies generally continue to improve and the pace of overseas acquisitions by Chinese LED companies, the attention of the capital market to the LED industry is heating up.

Recently, Guosen Securities issued a report saying that the signs of improvement in the supply and demand structure of the LED industry are significant, and the upstream enters the price increase cycle, and the downstream performance is outstanding.

(1) In 2016, the upstream price of the LED industry chain increased frequently, and some products rose more than 15%. (2) In 2016, the downstream LED lighting enterprises' revenues improved and ushered in a turning point. Many enterprises increased by more than 40% year-on-year. The reason for the representation is that raw materials are rising in price and are transmitted downstream. In fact, the supply and demand relationship of the LED industry chain has changed.

LED industry chain demand side: LED lighting penetration space is still large, 16 years of small spacing ushered in

Demand Side Analysis 1: LED lighting penetration rate is only 27.2%, and from October 1st, “ban ban” will promote LED lighting to further accelerate the replacement of incandescent lamps, and is expected to consume 60% of 15 years of LED bulb capacity, expected to 2020 The annual average annual growth rate of global LED lighting is 20.36%.

Demand Side Analysis 2: The indoor and outdoor small-pitch LED market continues to be hot, with more than 140 billion demand in 16 years, and there will still be nearly 40 billion new demand per year in 17-18 years, while the current small-pitch LED production capacity is 70 billion. Left and right, the gap between supply and demand is huge, and in summary, the demand has been significantly improved.

LED industry chain: 16 years of upstream chip capacity expansion is limited, packaging industry concentration is significantly improved

Analysis of the supply side: The “13th Five-Year Plan” no longer includes the LED industry in the cultivation industry, and the subsidies for LED chip companies are gradually narrowing. The overall upstream chip capacity has been significantly inhibited in nature. From the Aixtron and Veeco, which account for 90% of MOVCD supply, the order volume of only 30 MOVCDs in 16 years can reflect that the upstream capacity expansion will be greatly slowed down.

Supply side analysis 2: After deep reshuffle in 2015, the low-end backward packaging capacity has been fully eliminated, the industry concentration is significantly improved, and the leading packaging company with good cost control ability will benefit from the increase in scale effect and the significant increase in bargaining power.

LED supply and demand patterns are tight, or will continue into 2018. After 15 years of deep reshuffle in the LED industry, the overall supply pattern of the LED industry has been fully adjusted, and the industry's entry barriers will increase, and new supply will be greatly reduced.

Leading companies have expanded their economies of scale and their bargaining power has improved significantly. As a result of the Chinese government's supply-side reforms, the LED upstream subsidies have been contracted, and the future disordered production capacity will be significantly suppressed.

At the same time, LED lighting and small-pitch demand terminals are long-term, so the next two to three years will continue to drive the downstream demand of the LED industry chain.

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